The need to form new approaches to the choice of the carrier instead of the traditional ones not only increases the stability of transport companies, preserving competitiveness and efficiency of operation, but also allows the supplier to optimize the transport process due to the warranty cycle of delivery and, accordingly, reduction of transportation costs. One way to solve these problems is to implement the principles of logistics in the management of both individual companies and supply chains. For this, a logistic concept “just-in-time” is used, which allows to achieve the maximum coordination of delivery parameters. The reliability of the delivery depends both on the reliability of the supplier and on the reliability of the carrier under the condition of the operation of an uninterrupted logistics system: regular transportation at the right time, the required quality, the required quantity. The complexity of applying the logistics concept “just-in-time” in the transport process is, since its reliability depends on a number of random factors that manifest themselves with a certain regularity and probability for the initial process. For example, weather conditions, the human factor (in particular, the driver’s poor state of health), etc. The quantitative expression of reliability is the probability of trouble-free operation of the logistics system for a certain period of time under specific conditions. All failures in its work are investigated in the relevant period, the duration of which is associated with a phased technological process. The distribution of time is gradually subordinated to the theoretical distribution laws. Taking into account the probability of periodic supply problems, the question arises of the need to create methods for their regulation, smoothing out failures and not allowing production to stop.